122 lb works out to 1x35 + 1x5 per side plus the bar — call it 125 lb in practice, since gyms rarely stock the odd change. At 9 reps the formulas are starting to drift apart — 9 lb between the lowest and highest here — which is the method telling you the estimate is getting soft. Treat the lower end as the safer number. Your 95 lb set represents about 78% of the estimated max.
Why 9 reps widens the answer
Nine reps is near the outer limit of what these equations were fitted on, and it shows: 9 lb separates the lowest and highest estimate. A nine-rep set is shaped by conditioning, breathing and tolerance for discomfort, none of which is what a single measures. Treat 122 lb as a rough ceiling for planning, and re-test with a set of four or five before you believe it.
Training loads from a 122 lb max
Programmes are written as percentages of the max, not as absolute weights. From 122 lb, to the nearest pound, because 5 lb steps collapse into each other at this load:
| Percentage | Load | Typical set |
|---|---|---|
| 95% | 116 lb | Heavy single |
| 90% | 110 lb | Doubles and triples |
| 85% | 104 lb | Sets of four to five |
| 80% | 98 lb | Sets of six |
| 75% | 92 lb | Sets of eight |
| 70% | 85 lb | Volume work, ten or more |
At this end of the rack almost none of those percentages lands on a plate you own. 122 lb itself builds as 1x35 + 1x5 per side plus the bar, which is 125 lb — near enough, and the miss is smaller than the 9 lb the seven formulas disagree by. This is the weight range where a pair of 2.5 lb or 1.25 lb plates genuinely earns its place, because a 10 lb jump here is a much larger proportional step than it is at 300.
The formulas behind this answer, and their limitations
The table above the fold is Epley (1985), Brzycki (1993), Lombardi (1989), O'Conner (1989), Wathan (1994), Lander (1985) and Mayhew (1992), each applied to 95 lb for 9 reps; the headline figure is their median. All seven assume a set taken close to failure with clean technique. At 9 reps you are at the top of the band these equations were fitted on, and beyond it they diverge fast, so 122 lb is a ceiling rather than a target. They also under-rate strong, experienced lifters, who hold a higher percentage of max at any rep count than the regression average. The full account — the populations behind each equation, what a bounced rep does to it, and why we stop at ten reps — is set out on the methodology page. Warm up thoroughly and use safety bars or a spotter before going anywhere near 122 lb. This is a training estimate, not medical advice.